The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has warned that Pakistan may need to import up to 1.7 million tons of wheat this year amidst a decline in domestic production.
In a report, the USDA has forecast Pakistan’s wheat output for 2025-26 at 27.5 million metric tons, a 13% decline from the record 2024-25 harvest of 31.5 million tons. It has attributed the decline to a 7% reduction in cultivation area and unusually dry weather conditions, which have persisted since October 2024.
“Rainfall remained below average throughout the growing season, while temperatures were significantly higher than normal,” the report stated, raising concerns over long-term climate impacts and inadequate water infrastructure. Since January, the Pakistan Meteorological Department has consistently warned of the country experiencing drought-like conditions, stressing this may impact food security due to a lack of water for agricultural purposes.
The country’s water resources are further impacted by a failure to invest in major water reservoirs for several decade, with provincial disputes over irrigation water between Punjab and Sindh hindering any progress. Last year’s decision by the federal government to not purchase wheat at a support price has further complicated the situation, pushing many farmers to switch to alternate crops such as rapeseed, pulses, and vegetables.