Stability through Dialogue
Adviser to the P.M. Rana Sanullah has reached out to Sindh’s political parties to resolve the ongoing protests against the Cholistan canals project through dialogue. The outreach follows similar engagement with Sindh’s ruling PPP and is aimed at ending an ongoing sit-in that has blocked transport networks from Sindh to the rest of the country, hampering trade and the economy.
United Front
Following a meeting with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his country’s full support for Pakistan’s efforts to eliminate terrorism. Erdogan noted that Pakistan and Turkiye are acting in harmony on “almost every issue.” He also praised Islamabad for its stance on Palestine.
Looming Devaluation
Fitch Ratings has projected a gradual depreciation of the Pakistani rupee in the coming months, stating it expects the national currency to slide to Rs. 285 against the U.S. dollar by June 2025 and further to Rs. 295 by the end of the next fiscal year in June 2026. It has cited a recovery in economic activities, arguing that it can potentially add pressure on the current account.
Trade Balance
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has told the Atlantic Council think-tank that Pakistan’s vast mineral resources can help fix the trade imbalance with the U.S. Downplaying the impact of the Trump administration’s trade tariffs, he said the two countries would hold talks on the issue next month and aim to secure a “win-win” situation.
Still No Meetings
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s sisters were once again denied permission to meet him at Adiala Jail on Tuesday, prompting his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to announce it will write to the chief justice of the Islamabad High Court regarding the jail administration’s refusal to comply with court orders. Several party leaders were also denied permission to meet Khan, though others were allowed entry.
Wheat Woes
Farmers have vowed to protest the Punjab government’s decision to neither fix the wheat procurement price nor purchase the crop this season. The provincial government has said it will “benefit” farmers through other measures while proceeding with the deregulation of the crop. Farmers have rejected the “packages,” maintaining prevailing market rates prevent them from making any profit.
Resorting to Threats
Amidst ongoing tensions over the Cholistan canals project, the PPP has reiterated threats that it can “topple” the federal government by withdrawing support for the ruling PMLN. However, says Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, the party is opting for restraint to avoid a governance crisis and wants to chart a path forward through consensus.
Revising Downward
In line with global forecasts due to ongoing trade tensions, the International Monetary Fund has revised downward Pakistan’s project GDP growth rate for FY2024-25 to 2.6%. In January, the global lender had forecast Pakistan’s economic growth at 3%. In its latest update, however, it has noted that prevailing financial market adjustments may lead to tighter global financial conditions.
Rising Poverty
The World Bank has estimated Pakistan’s poverty rate to remain at 42.4% in the ongoing fiscal year, noting that the country’s 2.6% economic growth is insufficient to reduce poverty. With the country’s population growing at nearly 2% annually, this translates to roughly 1.9 million additional people falling into poverty this year.
Drums of War
Within hours of an attack on tourists in India-held Kashmir’s Pahalgam, Indian rightwing media started calling for “retaliatory” strikes on Pakistan. The situation underscores a pattern of India blaming Pakistan for all terrorism on its soil, without any evidence to support its claims. Neither nuclear-armed country can afford a full-scale war, with saner voices on both sides of the Line of Control calling for calm.