The successful resolution of the United States-Iran war can generate over $20 billion in economic and strategic opportunities for Pakistan, thanks to its unique position to serve as a credible intermediary between the two countries, according to a research report by KTrade Securities.
The Pakistani brokerage house said the country stands at a “rare geopolitical inflection point” where it can potentially convert a costly regional crisis into a long-term economic and strategic advantage.
According to KTrade, the recent conflict imposed severe economic costs on Pakistan after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global energy supplies and trade routes. The firm estimated the closure cost Pakistan between $10-14 billion, equivalent to 2-3% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
The disruption contributed to inflation accelerating to 11.7% in May 2026, pushed the current account into deficit and prompted the State Bank of Pakistan to raise interest rates by 100 basis points in April 2026, the report noted.
KTrade said that even if a diplomatic settlement were reached, the Strait of Hormuz would remain a structural vulnerability for global energy markets. Existing bypass infrastructure, including Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the U.A.E.’s Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline, has a combined capacity of about 8.5 million barrels per day, significantly below the approximately 20 million barrels that transit through the Strait daily. As a result, the report said, Gwadar Port has emerged as a strategically important alternative due to its location outside the Hormuz chokepoint. KTrade said Saudi Arabia is planning additional oil storage facilities at Gwadar after witnessing rapid storage build-ups during the disruption.
The report identified six major recovery channels that could benefit Pakistan following a settlement. These include a country-risk premium reduction of 75 to 150 basis points, foreign exchange reserves rising above $20 billion, recovery of approximately $4 billion in exports to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, inflation easing by 125-150 basis points as oil prices normalize, and an annual current account improvement of $3.75-5 billion.
KTrade has also projected renewed labor demand under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program, potentially creating employment opportunities for 700,000 to 800,000 Pakistani workers annually.
The report added that Pakistan’s stock market retains significant upside potential, noting that the benchmark KSE-100 Index remains about 12% below its January 2026 peak.
Beyond the immediate economic recovery, KTrade highlighted three long-term structural opportunities. The first is Gwadar Port’s emergence as a viable regional logistics hub, with estimated annual revenues of $50-80 million. The second is Pakistan’s vast mineral wealth, valued at an estimated $6-8 trillion, including what the report described as the world’s seventh-largest copper reserves that could attract direct U.S. investment.
The third opportunity stems from the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement, which KTrade said supports a proposed $10 billion Saudi investment package and aims to increase bilateral trade threefold to $15 billion.
The report also pointed to the prospect of expanding trade with Iran if sanctions-related restrictions ease. Bilateral trade between the two countries peaked at $1.32 billion in fiscal year 2008-09 before international sanctions constrained commercial activity. KTrade said a sanctions-free environment could revive Pakistani exports of rice, meat, textiles, paper products, fruits and surgical goods to Iran, positioning Pakistan as one of Tehran’s key regional trading partners.
“Pakistan’s mediator role unlocks direct bilateral trade expansion with Iran while simultaneously strengthening its strategic relevance to both regional and global stakeholders,” the report said.