Despite the passage of nearly four months since Pakistan and Afghanistan suspended cross-border trade, neither country appears willing to resume economic exchanges even as both suffer economic losses that risk attaining permanence.
In October 2025, Pakistani security personnel clashed with Afghan Taliban forces, with both sides accusing each other of initiating the violence. Islamabad maintains Kabul facilitates the presence of terrorists on its soil that stage attacks across the border, while Afghanistan describes the situation as an “internal” matter. Both sides agreed to a ceasefire after suspension of hostilities. However, they have kept their borders closed, with Islamabad demanding the Taliban provide security guarantees as a condition for reopening the crossings.
The biggest victims of the prolonged closure have been traders, with the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government reporting over a 53% decline in revenue and heightened unemployment in border districts. The provincial leadership has urged Islamabad to take immediate steps to restore smooth trade operations, warning the suspension hampers both regional stability and economic recovery.
Pak-Afghan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI) President Junaid Esmail Makda said he has urged the government to adopt a policy separating security issues from transit trade. “Let alone the economic loss on the federal government level, [suspension of trade] has jeopardized the job market of thousands of people,” he told The Standard, warning the situation could trigger far-reaching consequences if it persists.
Makda said thousands of containers remained stranded at both the Karachi and Gawadar ports, in addition to the Torkham border, as traders are unwilling to re-export these commodities without a full waiver of demurrage. On average, transit cost for a single container is $120/day.
Afghan perspective
Across the Durand Line, the Afghan Taliban regime claims it has established alternative routes to facilitate the import and export of commercial and transit goods. “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, with a clear understanding of the situation, has worked to reduce Afghanistan’s dependence on a single country and to open alternative trade routes,” Akhunzada Abdus Salam, spokesperson for the Afghanistan Ministry of Industry and Commerce, told The Standard.
“Fortunately, these efforts have been successful, and today Afghanistan has access to multiple routes for trade and transit of its goods, notably, the Chabahar port,” he said, referring to the Iranian port.
According to the spokesperson, Afghan markets have not suffered any shortages of essential goods due to the border closures. “For many years, Afghanistan had faced challenges due to the closure of border crossings by Pakistan during the harvest season, which had consistently caused significant losses to the country’s traders,” he said.
The spokesperson noted several containers carrying Afghan goods remained stranded in Pakistan, adding this posed serious difficulties for traders, including through financial losses and the immobilization of their capital.
Rebutting the official stance, however, Afghan head of PAJCCI Khan Jan Alokozay claimed the trade suspension was proving “disastrous” for both countries. “[This closure] has affected members of Afghanistan’s private sector the most,” he claimed, saying the border closures had led to the spoilage of thousands of tons of edibles, including fruits and vegetables. “The private sector on both sides of the border has suffered heavy losses, running in the millions,” he said.
On whether the two sides are attempting to resolve their differences and restore trade, the Afghan spokesperson claimed several government institutions are currently attempting to end the impasse. However, Pakistan’s Commerce Ministry has rejected this. “We are not on talking terms with Afghanistan at any level currently,” said a senior official at the ministry on the condition he remain anonymous.
No end in sight
Data available with the Commerce Ministry states there are around 7,000 Afghan transit trade containers stranded at ports and border crossings. Additionally, there is also some bulk cargo of DAP (Di-Ammonium Phosphate) fertilizer at Gwadar Port.
According to official estimates, Pakistan exported $1.4 billion in goods to Afghanistan last year, with the country now facing monthly losses of approximately $116 million due to the trade suspension. The Commerce Ministry official noted that these figures did not include the losses incurred by daily wagers at borders, transporters, and allied businesses.
On whether Pakistan was seeking alternative routes for its exports, especially to Central Asian States, the official acknowledged that the Pak-Afghan route remains the shortest and most cost effective. “Some of our exports can be diverted via Iran but it takes 20 days to reach Tashkent as compared with one week via the Pak-Afghan route,” he said, noting exports to Central Asia had declined by almost 50% following the border closure.
Regarding traders’ demands for relaxation on detention charges, the official said international shipping lines set the rates and this is not in the control of the government. “Some port operators have negotiated and granted concessions but they also can’t completely waive off demurrage charges as these containers have occupied large areas at ports/terminals, affecting their operations,” he added.
For now, neither country appears willing to budge and revive the lifeline for traders on both sides of their shared border. Ongoing terrorist strikes in Pakistan, many of them linked to Afghanistan, are furthering the divide, as most recently observed in last week’s suicide attack on an imambargah in Islamabad. In a posting on X, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has alleged the attack’s perpetrator had an extensive travel history to Afghanistan.
By refusing to decouple security from commerce, Islamabad and Kabul are jointly strangling a trade lifeline that once sustained both their economies.