The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will provide its assessment of the government’s targets for fiscal year 2026 (FY26) after reviewing macroeconomic factors in its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in July.
Addressing an analyst briefing, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad said the comprehensive evaluation would include a current account outlook, GDP growth, foreign exchange reserves, and inflation forecasts. The SBP typically releases such assessments twice a year, in July and January.
During the briefing, Ahmad said the central bank had maintained its key policy rate at 11% over persistent inflation trends amidst early signs of economic recovery. He said the total external debt repayments for FY25 had stood at $25.8 billion, with most already settled. A few rollovers remain in the documentation phase and are expected to be completed by year-end, he said, leaving approximately $400 million outstanding. A similar repayment amount is projected for FY26.
The central bank also noted that remittance inflows remained strong throughout FY25, projecting total remittances to reach $38 billion, an increase of $7 billion compared to the previous year.
Regarding the government’s FY26 budget, the SBP official confirmed the bank had reviewed and validated the projected Rs. 2.4 trillion profit estimate shared with authorities.
Ahmad said the country was on track to close the current fiscal year with a current account surplus. However, he said, the May 2025 Bank of Punjab data would reflect a slight deficit. He concluded his briefing by expressing confidence that inflation would continue to stabilize in the coming fiscal year. “Our target is to bring it down to 5-7% during FY26, as domestic macroeconomic indicators continue to improve,” he added.