The fragile ceasefire that had largely halted major combat between the United States, Israel and Iran since April is facing its most serious test yet after a renewed exchange of military strikes has raised fears of a return to full-scale regional warfare across the Middle East.
The latest escalation began with a new round of U.S. strikes against Iranian military and surveillance targets, reportedly in response to attacks on American forces and shipping lanes linked to the ongoing conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded with missile attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in the region, including installations in Jordan and other Gulf states, while warning that continued pressure could destroy remaining diplomatic efforts.
Despite the renewed fighting, officials on all sides have stopped short of formally abandoning the ceasefire. Both Iran and Israel announced earlier this week that they had halted direct attacks after a brief exchange of missile and drone strikes, the first such confrontation since the truce took effect in April. However, leaders in Tehran and Jerusalem have simultaneously warned that further attacks would be met with force, underscoring the ceasefire’s increasingly precarious nature.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Iran keeps “playing us for suckers” and will now “have to pay the price.” Hours later, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said American forces began “additional self-defense strikes” at 5:15 p.m. on Wednesday, Washington time in response to what it called Tehran’s “unwarranted and continued aggression.”
Iranian media reported explosions across the south near the Strait of Hormuz, with explosions heard in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm and Minab, and sources reporting hits by “enemy projectiles” in Kargan and Sirik.
CENTCOM said later that it had “completed” its strikes on “Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites.”
On Thursday afternoon, Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the latest U.S. strikes, adding they had rendered the nearly two-month ceasefire “practically meaningless.”
In a statement, the ministry said “the illegal and criminal attacks perpetrated by the United States in recent hours not only constitute a flagrant violation … but also render the ceasefire practically meaningless.” It added that the “responsibility for the extremely serious consequences of this criminal act lies with the leaders of the United States.”
Mounting human cost
The war, which began in late February, has already inflicted a devastating toll across the region. Human rights monitors cited in recent reports estimate that Israeli and U.S. operations inside Iran have killed at least 974 people and wounded more than 3,400, though actual figures may be significantly higher.
Israel has also suffered substantial losses from repeated Iranian missile barrages. Israeli authorities report at least 24 civilian deaths and more than 7,000 injuries during the heaviest phases of the conflict, with hundreds of missiles striking populated areas despite Israel’s extensive air-defense network.
Beyond Iran and Israel, the conflict has spread across much of the Middle East. Lebanon has endured extensive fighting involving Hezbollah and Israeli forces, while Gulf states including Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan have reported missile attacks, casualties and infrastructure damage linked to the broader confrontation.
Economic shockwaves
The renewed hostilities are reverberating through global markets.
Oil prices have surged back above $93 per barrel amid fears that military action could further disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Gulf stock markets have fallen sharply, while major international indices have experienced heightened volatility as investors assess the risk of a prolonged regional war.
Economists warn that the conflict is evolving into a broader global economic shock, contributing to rising inflation, higher transportation costs and growing uncertainty in energy markets. Analysts note that the economic effects could extend well beyond the Middle East if maritime traffic through the Gulf remains disrupted.