Some meteorologists have warned that Pakistan is likely to face one of its coldest winters in decades due to the La Nina climate pattern, according to a report published by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
In its latest situation report on this year’s devastating floods, compiled by the Intersector Coordination Group in collaboration with other partners, the organization warned that the anticipated weather conditions could lead to colder-than-usual winter conditions. This, it warned, could further stretch coping mechanisms of households affected by the floods, particularly in the mountainous regions of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan.
According to U.N. OCHA, La Ninas occur when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean cool abnormally, triggering extreme weather shifts worldwide.
The report further said that continued marginally negative phases of both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole would drive near- to below-normal rainfall across most of Pakistan. Northern Punjab, KP, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and GB are likely to witness below-normal rainfall, while southern areas like Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab may receive near-normal precipitation, it said.
Expected impacts of the forecast include possible disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting due to isolated storms, increased risk of dengue outbreaks in stagnant water conditions, higher chances of glacial lake outburst floods in upper areas, reduced river inflows affecting irrigation, elevated smog and air pollution in plains, and adverse effects on livestock health and fodder availability due to above-normal temperatures.
On the prevailing trends after this year’s floods, the report notes that after a “robust response” by local and international actors at the onset of the crisis, the presence of humanitarian partners and response capacity on the ground has decreased in the past three months. “Pre-positioned stocks and initial emergency funds were used, with humanitarian partners now seeking additional funding for sustained interventions to ensure provision of basic services during the transition period from a humanitarian response to that of early recovery,” it said.
It cited long-term damage to livelihoods as a point of particular concern, noting crop fields had flooded, devastating harvests, while livestock and fodder were swept away, and farm machinery and agricultural tools damaged or destroyed. A recent geo-spatial impact assessment conducted by FAO in flood-affected areas had found floodwaters inundated around 1.2 million hectares in Punjab, damaging major rice, cotton, and sugarcane fields. The disaster coincided with the critical window for Rabi crop planting, further threatening food security and livelihoods and the ability to bounce back, it warned.
Remaining stagnant water in some flood-affected areas is also of concern as it causes significant health risks, including outbreaks of waterborne diseases like cholera, diarrhea, and typhoid, as well as vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, which thrive in these conditions. With over 229,760 damaged or destroyed homes, many families continue to sleep outside, with little protection from the elements or vector-borne diseases carried by mosquitoes.
Schools and health facilities have also lost essential supplies, damaged or covered in thick mud, preventing the resumption of classes or provision of health services. Food and fodder stocks were either washed away or now lay waterlogged and rotten, increasing food insecurity and reliance on humanitarian food rations, it added.