A new report compiled by the United Nations indicates a significant decline in Pakistan’s fertility rate, dropping from six live births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 in 2024.
The development indicates a shift toward sustainable population growth, potentially yielding economic and demographic benefits if the trend persists.
The 2023 census recorded Pakistan’s population at approximately 241.49 million, with an annual growth rate of 2.55%. This is unsustainable, as an ideal growth rate would match the birth and death rates, requiring a total fertility rate of 2.1. Historical trends have resulted in a massive youth bulge, putting pressure on infrastructure, education, and healthcare systems. A declining fertility rate can mitigate these challenges by slowing population growth, allowing better allocation of resources and long-term planning.
A reduced fertility rate can also lead to a more balanced population structure, easing strains on resources and public services. With fewer dependents to support, families can allocate more resources per child, enhancing access to education, healthcare, and nutrition. This investment in human capital is crucial for fostering a skilled and healthy workforce, which in turn drives economic growth.
Pakistan is gradually emerging from an economic crisis arising from record inflation, low GDP growth and hefty debt servicing. Thanks to the base effect and improved supply of essential commodities, inflation has declined to single digits, enabling significant reductions to the key policy rate from 22% to 12%. Lower fertility rates can help the country prosper economically by encouraging women’s participation in the workforce.
With fewer children to care for, women can have greater opportunities to pursue education and employment, contributing to economic productivity and elevating household incomes. This shift not only empowers women but also promotes gender equality and economic diversification.
To achieve the desired fertility rate, however, Pakistan must focus on addressing the unmet need for family planning. Currently, one in five married women in Pakistan who wish to avoid pregnancy lack access to effective contraceptive methods. Meeting this need could reduce maternal deaths by nearly a third and further accelerate fertility decline.
The U.N. report offers an opportunity for Pakistan to achieve sustainable population growth, benefiting economic development and social well-being. By continuing to support family planning initiatives and investing in human capital, Pakistan can work towards a more prosperous and equitable future.