Pakistan’s economy grew by 3.89% in the second quarter (Nov-Jan) of the ongoing fiscal year, according to data provided by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The information was provided by the PBS during the 116th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), chaired by the secretary Planning, Development and Special Initiatives.
The second quarter of FY2025-26, per the data, posted 1.76% growth in the agriculture sector; 7.4% industry; and 3.69% services. The PBS has attributed the marginal increase in agriculture to a decline in cotton production (-0.9%) and increases in inputs, e.g., seeds (6%) and fertilizer (7.2%). Meanwhile, important crops have contracted by 1.87%, while other crops have contracted by 5.69% due to a decline in green fodder (-12.8%).
Livestock, per the data, increased by 5.59%, while the forestry and fishing industries grew by 3.76% and 0.77%, respectively.
Industries, meanwhile, have shown significant growth of 7.4% during the second quarter of FY26 against 0.78% in the same period last year. According to the data, the mining and quarrying industry contracted by 2.46% due to a reduction in production of gas (-3.98%); marble (-10.68%); limestone (-8.35%); and other minerals (-5.91%). Large-scale manufacturing, based on the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has grown by 5.71% due to positive contributions from automobiles (52.95%), transport equipment (40.81%), and petroleum products (24.65%).
The electricity, gas, and water supply industry has posted growth of 15.11% due to increased subsidies and a decline in the deflator (CPI electricity). The data estimates growth in the construction industry at 10.53%, driven by an increase in the production of construction inputs, e.g., cement (8.44%).
During Q2, services grew by 3.69% against 2.8% last year. Wholesale and retail trade has grown by 4.46% due to increases in marketable supply from domestic agricultural production (2%) and manufacturing (6.1%), as well as imports (1.3%).
The transportation and storage industry has grown by 2.79% due to increased output in road and water transport. Despite a high base, i.e., 11.13% in 2024-25Q2, the finance and insurance industry has grown by 4.52%. Further, public administration and social security (8.69%), education (4.90%), human health and social work (5.66%), and other private services (2.79%) have also contributed positively
The NAC approved the provisional growth rate for the second quarter, the revised growth rate for the first quarter, and updated GDP growth rates for FY24 and FY25. The updated growth for FY24 is 2.62%, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 2.63%, due to a small downward adjustment in industry from -0.89% to -0.99%. The revised growth for FY25 is 3.06%, down slightly from the earlier estimate of 3.09%.
While agriculture has slightly improved from 1.51% to 1.53%, the industry and services sectors have been revised downward from 5.26% to 5.23% and from 3.09% to 3.03%, respectively.
The committee approved the updated growth of GDP during the first quarter of FY26 at 3.63% against the earlier estimated 3.71%. The updated growth in agriculture has moved down to 2.72% from 2.89% mainly due to upward revision in the base quarter, i.e., Q1-FY25 (improved from 1.01% to 1.12%) and increase in inputs i.e. seed (6%) and fertilizer (7.2%), resulting in higher rates of contraction in important crops (-1.14% vs. -0.75%) and other crops (-6.90% vs. -6.37%).
The updated growth in industry during Q1 is 8.86% against 9.38% due to a higher rate of contraction in mining and quarrying (from -4.13% to -5.48%) and downward adjustment in growth in large scale manufacturing (from 4.10% to 3.93%) and construction (from 21.03% to 19.22%). The growth in services has increased from 2.35% to 2.44% due to improvements in public administration and social security (10.64% vs. 8.08%), education (5.93% vs. 5.24%), and human health and social work activities (7.19% vs. 6.27%).