Crime and bad lives are the measure of a state’s failure, all crime in the end is the crime of the community.” — H.G. Wells
Pakistan has never been a beacon of public safety, but recent years have seen an alarming increase in criminal activities, from robbery to homicide, boosting the difficulties of citizens struggling to make ends meet amidst a prevailing economic crisis. This is all-the-more concerning considering the relative security achieved in the country more than a decade ago.
In 2013, according to data provided by the Interior Ministry of Pakistan, 634,404 crimes were reported nationwide, or 6.79 incidents per 100,000 people. This includes murders, attempted murders, kidnappings, dacoity, robbery and other criminal offenses. A year later, the crime rate declined by 6.08%, followed by the most significant jump in 2015, when the country reported just 4.5 incidents per 100,000 people, with a decline of 29.47% from 2014.
The declining trend, partially due to an increasing population, slowly continued till 2020, when the country saw its crime rate increase for the first time in almost a decade, recording 3.74 reported incidents per 100,000 people against 3.65 in 2019. Authorities maintain this is primarily due to the addition of cybercrimes and property theft, but data provided by provincial law enforcers indicates a significant hike in street crimes, as most evident in major urban centers.
According to Karachi police, homicide rates in the city grew by 10% in 2022, with over 800 reported cases. Similarly, in 2023, Punjab police recorded a 20% increase in reported crimes related to property theft, while cybercrimes, including identity theft and financial fraud soared by 25% the same year nationwide. Observers point to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 as a triggering factor, noting it upended societal norms and forced many facing unemployment to turn to crime.
Instability, overall, has played a demonstrably major role in Pakistan’s crime rate. The economic conditions arising out of the pandemic—and subsequent political unrest—pushed many into poverty, with the World Bank estimating nearly 40% of the population now earns less than $3.65/day. Exacerbating the situation was a decline in purchasing power due to devaluation of the national currency, boosting financial insecurity. The country’s much-heralded youth bulge has also played a role in the rise of criminal activities, with prevailing economic conditions leaving little room for gainful employment even for educated individuals, much less the impoverished.
The country’s political instability, meanwhile, hampers any attempts at reform as every change in government brings about a new raft of policies, with plans already underway repeatedly swept under the rug. This is especially visible in law enforcement, as multiple attempts to rehabilitate provincial police cadres have failed to make much headway due to lack of resources and corruption. In the absence of any effective deterrent to criminal action, the unscrupulous and the desperate resort to illegal activities, confident that there is little chance of any prosecution.
Another factor to consider is the mental health of the average Pakistani citizen. In recent years, multiple governments have bemoaned a rise in the illicit drug trade, vowing to curb the practice through harsh punishments, while paying little heed to the reasons encouraging the rise in drug use. In doing so, authorities are implicitly encouraging a cycle of crime, as damaged people in turn bring harm to those around them.
Addressing these disparate but interlinked issues requires significant reforms across the board. Not only must economic conditions improve to a degree where a sustainable job environment can emerge, but particular care must also be paid to restoring public confidence in law enforcers through reforms aimed at improving their service delivery. Without such steps, criminal activity in Pakistan is unlikely to subside, leaving the dream for a safe and just society unfulfilled.