Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all of its key quantitative performance criteria under the ongoing $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, despite tax revenue collection remaining below target, according to the head of research at Topline Securities.
An IMF mission is slated to reach Pakistan in the last week of February for the third review of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility and the second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The review will assess performance against targets set for September and December 2025.
“Based on our calculations, Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all seven quantitative performance criteria,” said Shankar Talreja, head of research at Topline Securities. “Data for one indicator—the floor on targeted cash transfers—is not yet known. This was missed in the last review by just Rs. 1 billion,” he added.
Quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) are key benchmarks under IMF programs that require board-level waivers if missed. Talreja said Pakistan’s Net International Reserves (NIR) are projected to remain above the benchmark floors of negative $7 billion for September 2025 and negative $6.5 billion for December 2025.
The Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the State Bank of Pakistan are estimated in the range of Rs. 12.5 trillion to Rs. 13.5 trillion, compared with ceiling targets of Rs. 14.9 trillion-15.1 trillion for September and December. Foreign currency swaps stood at $2.2 billion and Rs. 1.86 trillion for September and December 2025, respectively, compared with ceilings of $2.25 billion and $2.0 billion, he said.
Pakistan’s primary surplus is projected at Rs. 3.5 trillion for September and Rs. 4.1 trillion for December, significantly above the respective targets of Rs. 460 billion and Rs. 3.2 trillion. Government guarantees, the floor on cash transfer spending and the target for new tax filers are also expected to be met, Talreja said, citing channel checks.
However, tax collection remains under pressure. The Federal Board of Revenue has missed its revenue target by Rs. 336 billion based on published figures, he said. “We believe a portion of this shortfall could be recovered through the verdict pertaining to the Super Tax,” he said. “However, in our view, overall collection is still likely to remain below the annual target.”
The upcoming review by the IMF will be critical in determining the next tranche of funding and assessing Pakistan’s adherence to reform commitments under the program. Talreja said meeting the QPCs would reduce the risk of delays in IMF disbursements and help maintain macroeconomic stability. However, he cautioned that continued shortfalls in tax revenues could complicate fiscal management, particularly if one-off measures such as the Super Tax fail to fully bridge the gap.