With the U.S. moving closer to India, Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely see further straining of Pak-U.S. ties
Shortly after initial results confirmed Republican Donald Trump’s election as the 47th president of the United States, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and other Pakistani leaders were quick to congratulate him on his election victory. This was expected—despite the persistently strained ties between the U.S. and Pakistan. The two countries’ troubled bilateral history has largely centered on the important place occupied by the Pakistani military in American geopolitical strategy. Following the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in 2021, however, American interests diverged, raising questions over Pakistan’s role in the war on terror. At the same time, the U.S. has moved closer to India, bringing greater pressure on Pakistani diplomacy.
It is no secret that since Partition the U.S. has figured prominently in Pakistan’s foreign policy. The relationship has witnessed both complex and dynamic periods of cooperation, with Washington an important development and security partner of Islamabad. However, the relationship has been marked by cyclical patterns, shifting between periods of estrangement and close engagement. Pakistan has alternated between being America’s most favored ally to most sanctioned “ally.” Both situations were apparent in Trump’s last tenure as the 45th President of the United States.
For the first two years of Trump’s previous tenure, bilateral relations were decidedly strained. For the final two, when the U.S. needed Pakistan for its Afghan withdrawal plans, the relationship was more positive. Pakistan, for now, cannot afford to anger the U.S. America remains Pakistan’s largest single export-market by a wide margin and is also one of its largest sources of foreign investment, beating out traditional ally China. For decades, Pakistan has strong relations with both the U.S. and China, but increasing tensions between the global powers risk forcing it to pick a side. U.S. experts have noted this, warning that overlooking Pakistan risks pushing it further into China’s sphere of influence. Washington’s bonhomie with Delhi counters this, however, hinting at another round of strained ties in the second Trump presidency.