The opposition’s plan for an all-parties conference after Eidul Fitr as a precursor to mass agitation represents the classic paradox of an immovable object meeting an unstoppable force.
The largest party in the burgeoning alliance, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has made no secret that its ultimate aim is the release of its incarcerated leader, Imran Khan. The remaining parties ostensibly seek fresh elections. Yet, if past is prologue, the movement is unlikely to succeed if it cannot—covertly or otherwise—secure the support of the military establishment.
Pakistan is no stranger to opposition-led movements seeking to oust the sitting government. The 1970s saw the Pakistan National Alliance while the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy rose to prominence in the 1980s. More recently, opposing political forces aligned in their resistance to Gen. Pervez Musharraf, eventually forcing him out through the Lawyers’ Movement—after the military withdrew its support for the former Army chief.
A year after the 2013 general elections, the PTI orchestrated a 126-day sit-in in Islamabad alongside the Pakistan Awami Tehreek against alleged election rigging. Despite triggering significant political instability, Imran Khan’s movement failed to dislodge Nawaz Sharif’s government as the military—despite its apparent displeasure with the PMLN—refused to intervene directly. The tide had turned by 2017, however, when the Panama Papers scandal facilitated Sharif’s ouster through a Supreme Court ruling perceived to have been influenced by the military establishment.
In 2020, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) launched its own attempt to topple Khan’s government but struggled to gain momentum until the establishment turned its back on the PTI. The party swiftly lost its coalition partners, with Khan removed through a vote of no-confidence.
Ahead of the latest round of opposition agitation, there is little indication of either the tacit or explicit backing of the military. The current establishment has thus far stood firmly behind the government, showing no signs of reconsidering its position. If this alignment holds, the planned protests may amount to little more than political posturing, destined to fizzle out like many before them.
However, it doesn’t take much to turn the tide in Pakistan. If the opposition settles in for a sustained movement, it could yet force a reckoning in the country’s political landscape.