Pakistan’s inflation for November clocked in at 6.1%, broadly in line with estimates of market analysts, and slightly lower than the previous month’s 6.2%.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), urban CPI rose 6.1% while rural rose 6.3% year-on-year. Average CPI over the first five months of the ongoing fiscal year reached 5% against 7.9% in the same period last year. Core inflation increased 7.2% year-on-year, compared with 7.9% in the previous month.
A visible uptrend in the Food and Non-alcoholic Beverage Index (5.5% YoY), particularly for non-perishable food items, was attributed to a marked rise in wheat (flour) prices. Wheat prices remained elevated this month amid concerns over a looming shortage, with little indication of any wheat imports in the near-term.
SPI prices of perishable items such as tomatoes declined by 49%, while those of potatoes reduced 3.6% month-on-month. Onion prices, however, surged 29.7% month-on-month. The decline in tomato prices largely stems from improved supply, whereas, onion prices saw an increase amid limited supply after the closure of the Pak-Afghan border. The uptick in prices is expected to subside if there is a breakthrough in talks between both countries, per an analyst.
The PBS said non-food, non-energy inflation for urban centers reached 6.6%, while for rural areas it reached 8.2% year-on-year in November. Over the past three months, this was recorded at an average of 7% for urban areas and 8% for rural. Key lifestyle indicators, such as health, clothing and education, continue to exhibit inflationary pressures in the 8-11% year-on-year range.
The Housing and Utilities index was up 5.3% year-on-year while the decrease in electricity prices was more than offset by elevated gas prices. Electricity prices, as per the CPI basket, are down 9.4% year-on-year.
Analysts expect CPI outturns to continue to remain range-bound between 5-7% until April-June 2026, as then the effect of a low-base effect will kick in. Over the next 12 months, average CPI should remain near the upper-end of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)’s inflation target of 7%. It is likely the central bank may extend its pause on policy easing in anticipation of an uptick in inflation prints near the end of FY26.