Inflation in Pakistan during the month of November clocked in at 4.9% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in October, according to data issued by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.
Last month’s reading follows several months of easing inflation, owing to a high base effect and an improvement in food supplies. It has triggered successive decreases to the policy rate by the State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee, with observers hoping the body’s next meeting later this month will see a further cut to boost industries.
The PBS data shows that the consumer price index inflation (general) in November was 4.9% compared to 29.2% in November 2023. According to market observers, this is the lowest value in six-and-a-half years, or April 2018. On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.5% in November, read the PBS report, compared to an increase of 1.2% in October.
The latest inflationary values are also significantly better than previously estimated by the Finance Ministry. In its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for November, the Finance Division had projected inflation to slow to 5.8-6.8% in November, before declining further to 5.6-6.5% in December.
Urban inflation
According to PBS, the key drivers of inflation for November, year-on-year, in urban areas were pulse grams (71.94%); besan (59.13%); pulse moong (36.94%), fish (27.14%), gram whole (25.08%), milk powder (20.93%) and meat (20.65%). In non-food items, the biggest increases were recorded in motor vehicle tax (168.79%), footwear (31.88%), dental services (24.51%), personal effects (22.58%) and woolen readymade garments (19.10%).
On a month-on-month basis, tomatoes (26.56%), eggs (11.83%), pulse moong (11.15%), honey (10.34%), potatoes (8.64%), mustard oil (7.48%) and vegetable ghee (4.69%) all posted increases. In non-food items, footwear (12.36%), liquefied hydrocarbons (8.95%), woolen readymade garments (6.91%) and electrical appliances for personal use (5.21%).
Rural inflation
The key drivers for rural inflation, year-on-year, in food items were: pulse gram (69.4%), besan (53.63%), pulse moong (37.02%), milk powder (26.62%), onions (25.04%), butter (24.38%) and meat (22.39%). In non-food items, the increases were in: motor vehicle tax (126.61%), personal effects (26.75%), education (22.96%), communication services (18.70%) and woolen readymade garments (18.52%).
On a month-on-month basis, tomatoes (26.15%), eggs (10.26%), potatoes (9.56%), pulse moong (7.75%), cooking oil (6.75%) and vegetable ghee (6.30%) saw increases. In non-food items, woolen readymade garments (5.94%), liquefied hydrocarbons (5.27%), household textiles (4.23%) and drugs and medicines (3.92%) increased.