The National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Wednesday released GDP estimates for the first three quarters of FY26, showing growth of 4% year—on-year, taking the 9MFY26 average growth to 4%, within the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)’s range of 3.75-4.75%.
In its meeting, the committee also revised the GDP growth for 1Q and 2QFY26 up by 29bps and 16bps to 3.92% and 4.05%, respectively. The 9MFY26 growth trend is falling in upper range of previous estimates of 3.5-4% for FY26.
Analysts said the GDP growth for the full fiscal year would likely fall within the range of the SBP forecast. However, they warned, a reduction in economic activity is expected to weigh on the fourth quarter amidst higher oil prices and administrative measures, i.e. early closure of markets.
According to Topline Securities, the forecast for GDP growth also aligns with the provisional GDP growth of 3.7% quoted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics for FY26 in its press release.
During the meeting, the NAC also slightly adjusted upward the GDP growth for FY25 to 3.18% from earlier 3.06%.
In terms of sectors, agriculture posted a 7-quarter high growth of 3.01% in 3QFY26 against 2.4% in 3QFY25, primarily on the back of 3.7% growth in livestock; 2.27% growth in other crops; and 1.62% growth in forestry. Essential crops, however, posted growth of just 1.1%. The 9MFY26 growth for agriculture segment averages at 2.9%. Topline said it expected agriculture growth to hit 3% for FY26 with crops growth of 2.1%, livestock 3.5%, and forestry 3%.
Industry, per the NAC, posted increase of 4.65%. The Industrial segment increased by 4.65% in 3QFY26 compared to 0.3% in 3QFY25. Within industry, large-scale manufacturing posted growth of 9.53% while construction posted meager growth of 0.5% due to high base effect from last year.
The 9MFY26 growth for industrial segment averages to 6.4% against 0.4% in 9MFY25. Topline maintained its forecast of industrial growth at 6.8%, citing a low base effect of electricity, gas and water segment and robust large-scale manufacturing numbers.
The services sector grew by 4.18%, primarily due to 8.88% and 9.78% growth in public administration and social security, and information and communication, respectively. The 9MFY26 growth for services segment averages at 3.7% against 2.8% in 9MFY25.