The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Sunday issued a forecast for “heavy to very heavy rainfall” in the upper catchments of Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers, as well as Lahore, Gujranwala and Gujrat divisions, from Sept. 1-3.
The weather monitoring body said the anticipated rainfall could cause urban flooding in Lahore, Gujranwala and Gujrat while also boosting flows in the affected rivers. Additionally, it warned of a high risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the country’s north and urged authorities in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to take necessary precautions.
The advisory cited hydro-meteorological data from monitoring stations under the GLOF-II project as showing “a significant rise in temperature values, much higher than normal,” which may hasten the melting of glaciers and boost downstream flows in areas such as Arkari, Badswat, Darkut, Hisper Hoper, Ghundus and Gulkin.
“All concerned are advised to remain alert and take necessary measures to avoid any untoward situation,” read the advisory.
Monsoon rains
In its forecast, the PMD said monsoon currents from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are penetrating the country’s upper and central parts while a westerly wave lies over the northern parts. Due to these weather systems, it said, “widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall” with torrential downpours is anticipated at scattered locations.
Under these conditions, wind and thunderstorms are forecast for Kashmir, GB, KP, upper and southern Punjab, and Islamabad. Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated in Kashmir, upper KP, and northeastern and southern Punjab. Other regions of the country are likely to experience hot and dry conditions.
The rains forecast for Sept. 1 (today) might generate flash floods in local streams of Dir, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Kohistan, Manshera, Abbottabad, Nowshera and Swabi. Similarly, there is a risk of floods in Murree, Galliyat, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, northeast Punjab and the hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan.
Urban flooding risks have been issued for low-lying areas of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot, Narowal, Peshawar, Nowshera and Mardan.