Diplomatic efforts to halt the escalating Middle East conflict are increasingly centering on Pakistan, with Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar indicating preparations are underway to host high-level talks aimed at securing a ceasefire between Iran and U.S.-backed forces.
In a statement issued after a quadrilateral meeting with the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Dar said both the U.S. and Iran had expressed “confidence” in Pakistan facilitating talks between them. He reiterated that Pakistan was willing, and would be honored to, play host to “meaningful talks” between the two. Yet, even as attempts to broker an end to the conflict gather pace, fighting continues to intensify across the region.
Iranian officials have expressed deep skepticism over U.S. intentions, accusing Washington of using negotiations as cover while preparing for a possible ground offensive. Over the weekend, Tehran warned that any deployment of American ground troops would trigger a broader regional response, hardening its official stance in response to similarly mixed messages from U.S. President Donald Trump.
In various posts on social media and public statements, Trump has signaled openness to negotiations while continuing to emphasize military leverage. Over the weekend, he suggested the United States could expand its campaign significantly, including seizing strategic energy assets such as Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil export hub. He has also indicated that Washington is prepared to escalate operations if necessary, with Pentagon planning reportedly including targeted ground raids rather than a full-scale invasion. “Many long sought after targets have been taken out [in Iran] and destroyed by our GREAT MILITARY, the finest and most lethal in the world,” he wrote.
According to military data emerging from the conflict, U.S. strikes have targeted more than 90 Iranian military sites in a single campaign, reflecting a strategy focused on degrading Tehran’s defensive and logistical capabilities. One of the most consequential variables in the coming week is the possibility of U.S. ground troop involvement. Thousands of American personnel, including Marines and special operations forces, have already been deployed to the region, with contingency plans reportedly envisioning weeks-long operations if escalation continues. Despite this, senior U.S. officials have suggested the conflict may not become a prolonged war, though no clear timeline has been established.
Iran, for its part, has doubled down on its strategy of asymmetric retaliation. Over the weekend, Iranian leaders reiterated their intent to continue strikes on regional targets and disrupt critical shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes, has seen traffic plummet amid attacks, mines, and military threats. As a “confidence-building measure,” according to Pakistan’s Dar, Iran has permitted two ships under the Pakistani flag to cross the Strait daily.
The disruptions, now in place for almost a month, are already reverberating across global markets. Oil prices have surged dramatically, with Brent crude climbing above $110–$116 per barrel and, in some trading sessions, nearing $120 amid fears of further escalation. Analysts warn that the conflict has already triggered one of the sharpest monthly increases in oil prices on record, with gains exceeding 50% in March alone.
The economic implications are significant. Prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could deepen global inflation, strain energy-importing economies, and destabilize financial markets already reacting to the conflict. Stock indices across the Gulf and beyond have shown volatility, reflecting investor concern that the war could expand further.