The expanding conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel has entered a new and potentially more dangerous phase with Tehran’s formal declaration of a new supreme leader amidst intensified fighting across multiple fronts and warnings of direct retaliation from Gulf states caught in the crossfire.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts has announced that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would assume the role of supreme leader following his father’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike on Feb. 28. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has pledged loyalty to the new leader, declaring it is “ready to fully obey” his commands as the country mobilizes for what officials suggest could be a prolonged confrontation with Washington and its allies.
U.S. President Donald Trump has sharply criticized the leadership transition, echoing his previous demand to have a say in who leads Iran. He claimed the new Iranian leader would “not last long” without American approval and reiterated that Washington intended to play a decisive role in shaping Iran’s future leadership and political direction. American media outlets have indicated Trump is hoping to achieve this by arming Kurdish forces to spark an uprising in Iran, though Kurds in Syria have warned their Iranian counterparts against aligning with Washington against Tehran.
Iranian officials have obviously rejected Trump’s remarks as interference in their internal affairs. In a video statement, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that Tehran would respond to any country that allows its territory to be used for attacks against Iran, while also stating that Iran does not seek conflict with neighboring populations. The statement has prompted some controversy, with Iranian officials claiming it weakened the country’s position.
Gulf states’ warning
The ongoing conflict, now in its second week, has furthered tensions between Iran and Arab Gulf states. Saudi Arabia and several regional governments condemned Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting facilities in the region, and warned Tehran that continued attacks could trigger direct retaliation.
Bahrain has accused Iran of striking a desalination plant in a drone attack, underscoring fears that critical civilian infrastructure such as water and energy facilities could become regular targets in the conflict. On Sunday, U.S.-Israeli forced bombed oil storage facilities near Tehran, leading to a dark haze over the city’s skies and reports of rain filled with toxic crude. Observers are warning prolonged exposure to this atmosphere could have dire long-term consequences for local residents.
In addition to the warnings to Tehran, Gulf governments are also increasingly voicing frustration with Washington and Israel, warning that the widening war threatens regional stability and global economic security and questioning the endgame of the conflict.
Rising casualties
The conflict has produced mounting casualties across the region as fighting continues to spread. According to the latest compiled figures, at least 1,332 people have been killed in Iran since the United States and Israel launched their joint air campaign, with thousands more injured in strikes targeting military installations, infrastructure and urban areas.
In Israel, at least 11 people have been killed in Iranian missile and drone strikes, including civilians hit in attacks near Jerusalem and central Israel. The United States has confirmed the killing of seven American soldiers, most of them in an Iranian drone strike on a U.S. facility in Saudi Arabia earlier in the conflict.
Israel’s parallel military campaign against Iranian-aligned forces in Lebanon has also significantly expanded the war. Lebanese authorities report at least 394 people killed and more than 1,300 injured in Israeli airstrikes across Beirut, southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley since early March, while more than 500,000 residents have reportedly been displaced by the bombardment and fighting with Hezbollah.
Elsewhere in the region, smaller numbers of deaths have been reported in Gulf states struck by Iranian missiles and drones, including two civilians killed in Saudi Arabia and additional casualties linked to attacks on energy and industrial facilities. At least two Pakistani nationals have been killed due to Iran’s strikes in the U.A.E., with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announcing the government is facilitating the repatriation process.
Energy crisis
Attacks on energy facilities continue to rattle global oil markets. Brent crude has surged toward the $100-per-barrel mark amid concerns that the conflict could threaten shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade. Analysts are warning that if the conflict continues through this week, with more strikes on oil and shipping infrastructure, the per-barrel price could rise even higher, inflicting long-lasting damage on global economies.
With Iran’s new leader signaling continuity and the IRGC rallying behind him, observers fear the conflict is unlikely to end quickly. Iranian officials claim the country has the capacity to sustain the war for months, while U.S. and Israeli leaders have also indicated they are prepared for a prolonged campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities.
As both sides harden their positions and regional actors grow increasingly involved, diplomats warn that the war risks expanding into a wider Middle Eastern conflict with global economic consequences.