The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned of a looming drought, raising fears over its impact on the country’s economy and social stability.
In an advisory issued last month, the PMD noted that rainfall across Pakistan from Sept. 1, 2024 through Jan. 15, 2025 was 40% lower than normal. The weather conditions have already created mild drought-like conditions, it said, noting the situation was unlikely to improve through March. The worst hit provinces comprise the country’s breadbaskets, with Sindh recording 52% lower than normal rainfall, followed by Balochistan (45% lower); and Punjab (42% lower).
Often described as the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, its agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change and weather-related disruptions. Drought conditions significantly reduce crop yields of staple crops such as wheat, rice, and maize. Coupled with IMF-enforced taxation measures on agricultural income, conditions are ripe for significant disruptions to farmers’ livelihoods. These taxes diminish the capital available for reinvestment in improved irrigation, modern farming techniques, and resilience-building measures—leaving farmers exposed to the full force of an impending drought.
The dual pressures could trigger a cascade of adverse outcomes, with rising food prices, reduced availability of nutritious food, and an uptick in malnutrition likely consequences. The inability to profit off crops could precipitate a wave of rural poverty, inciting migration to urban centers, where the resultant social dislocation would strain resources and exacerbate existing inequalities.
The looming drought also threatens to destabilize Pakistan’s entire food chain. Food processing industries and markets reliant on steady agricultural outputs are at risk of raw material shortages, potentially leading to job losses and broader economic contraction. Rural communities, often the first to experience the shocks of climate change, could see a sharp decline in living standards. For a country only just emerging from years of economic contraction and backbreaking inflation, the prospect of widespread food insecurity heralds another period of prolonged uncertainty and economic hardship.
The government must act decisively and take preventative measures before it is too late. This requires educating farmers on drought-resilient agricultural practices; improving water management; and offering alternative livelihood programs. Measures to mitigate the fiscal impact of new taxes are essential, as well as seeking international support to mobilize necessary resources.
Unless authorities take immediate steps to safeguard the livelihoods of millions and secure the nation’s agricultural future, Pakistan is on the brink of a situation where hunger becomes an unavoidable reality.