With general elections appearing likely in November 2023, speculations abound over who will emerge as the next Prime Minister of Pakistan. Prior to the May 9 riots, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman was near-certain to secure a majority, but the numerous cases pending against him now make it dubious whether he would even be able to participate in the process. This opens a window for the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) to return to power, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif maintaining that his elder brother, Nawaz Sharif, would end his self-exile and become the prime minister for a fourth time if the party wins the public mandate. However, this is by no means assured, as the ground realities have significantly shifted since the PMLN last won general elections in 2013.
In a recent interview, the elder Sharif said he would contest polls Inshallah (God willing). Prior to this, he would need to resolve all cases still pending against him in court, adding a measure of uncertainty. At the same time, the PMLN has yet to recover from a period of extended decline that paved the way for the PTI, which has retained much of its vote bank in Punjab despite the ongoing crackdown against its workers and leaders. Yet retaining—and more importantly convincing them to come out on polling date—these voters will prove testing as the country enters campaign mode. While it is unlikely that any disenchanted voters will switch over to the PMLN, there is potential for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) to lure some support, especially as party Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari leads efforts to “revive” its fortunes in Punjab.
What is clear is that the PMLN cannot expect a walkover in its Punjab “stronghold” regardless of whether or not Nawaz returns. He has been out of the country for nearly 4 years and a political outsider for even longer, requiring a major “reset” to attract voters who have shifted loyalties in his absence. Khan’s predictions of elections not happening because the ruling coalition and the establishment “fears” him may not prove true, but the PMLN will have to dedicate significant efforts over the next few months to ensure its old vote bank returns to help it assume government once more.