Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch has confirmed that Pakistan has extended an invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Islamabad.
Given Modi’s frequently targeted negative remarks on Pakistan, it is difficult to imagine him accepting the invite, not to mention his history of dodging events that could prove a source of embarrassment. Pakistan’s decision, on the other hand, is a continuation of its careful dealings with India in multilateral forums, as with then-foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari travelling to India in 2023 to attend a SCO foreign ministers moot.
In a bid to dampen speculation over the upcoming event, India’s Ministry of External Affairs last week issued an “advisory” to its media, cautioning journalists against “speculating on P.M. Modi’s participation in the SCO meeting.” It stressed that it had not issued any official statement on Modi’s participation or absence from the conference and any report on the matter did not necessarily reflect the facts.
The most likely outcome, however, is Modi skipping the meeting, owing partly to persistent tensions between Pakistan and India over the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, as well the two countries’ history of military conflicts and back-and-forth allegations of terrorism. India has adopts great caution in dealing with Pakistan at events that are either hosted by Islamabad or are strongly influenced by China. In this regard, Delhi has engaged selectively in the SCO’s economic strategies, with an aim to “counterbalance Chinese dominance while fostering constructive ties with Central Asian nations.”
India under Modi has also seen a retreat from the secularism enshrined in its constitution, propping up Pakistan’s role in its domestic politics, with Modi often using Islamabad as a punching bag in campaign events. The surprise results of this year’s general election, with Modi’s BJP barely managing to emerge victorious, would likely encourage him to double down on this behavior, with any potential rapprochement with Pakistan risking his political security. In this scenario, any visit of Modi to Pakistan seems an increasingly far-fetched scenario.