The ruling coalition’s repeated claims of general elections occurring as scheduled after the dissolution of the National Assembly increasingly ring hollow as differences emerge whether or not the polls should be conducted after fresh delimitation in light of the recently-concluded digital census.
The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and several leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) had earlier said the elections should occur on the basis of the previous census, noting the delimitation exercise could take months, leading to a delay in polls. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif rubbished this earlier this week, maintaining that if the Council of Common Interests (CCI) validates the census results, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) was bound to conduct polls per its findings. He also, laughably, claimed he did not believe this would lead to a delay in polls, despite multiple statements from the electoral body and his own party’s planning minister indicating otherwise.
It is now clear that if the CCI approves the census results—as demanded by coalition partner MQM—elections won’t be conducted in 2023. Even with the 90 days the government plans to grant the ECP to conduct polls—by dissolving the National Assembly ahead of the expiry of its constitutional term—the delimitation exercise would require at least 5 months, meaning a minimum delay of two months till elections occur. This would leave the country in the hands of unelected caretakers in much the same way as the provinces of Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, which were supposed to proceed to polls no later than April but have now been in power four months beyond their legal mandate.
The PMLN likely prefers this scenario because it hopes to use the extra time to regain the political capital its lost due to mismanagement of the economy that has propelled inflation to record highs and left it cornered in the “stronghold” of Punjab. By contrast, this situation does not suit the PPP, which hopes to capitalize on Imran Khan’s expected disqualification by luring disenfranchised voters of the PTI to its fold. PPP Co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari has made visible attempts to achieve this by bolstering his party with PTI defectors after the May 9 riots.
If the PTI loses its leader to disqualification—as appears increasingly likely—it will prove difficult for the cornered party to campaign and bring out voters. This would, inevitably, lead to a fight between the PPP and PMLN over Punjab, with the latter encouraging the public to recall the heyday of Shehbaz Sharif’s tenure as chief minister while his elder brother, Nawaz Sharif, was the prime minister. But both parties will have to reckon with the backlash triggered by the current state of the economy and neither is guaranteed a shot at the throne if they cannot overcome it.