A key concern among certain Pakistan observers is how the upcoming transfer of power in Washington will shaped its ties with Islamabad. The four years of Joe Biden’s presidency have seen the U.S. tilt toward India, to the detriment of its ties with Pakistan, pushing the latter closer to “all-weather” friend China. Reflecting the decline in Pakistan’s relative importance to the U.S., the Biden administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy did not even mention Pakistan. The years former prime minister Imran Khan has spent accusing the U.S. of orchestrating his ouster has not helped matters.
Earlier this year, Washington placed sanctions on companies allegedly supplying parts to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program. Several U.S. officials have similarly linked their country’s ties to Pakistan with Islamabad’s counter-terrorism efforts and the pursuit of “regional stability.” Prevailing wisdom holds a potential Kamala Harris presidency would continue Biden’s policies. Republican Donald Trump, meanwhile, is similarly no friend of Pakistan—though the PTI is currently harboring the belief that he could “convince” the establishment to release Khan. In either scenario, Pakistan is unlikely to see a major shift in its relationship with the United States.
The State Department’s stated view of Pakistan through a counter-terrorism and stability lens ensures Washington’s primary focus would remain the Pakistan Army, “which plays an outsized role in terms of counter-terror policy as well as overall nuclear strategy, including Pakistan’s missile development program.” Yet, there is reason to believe the U.S. could once more tilt toward Pakistan, as concerns mount over the rise of the Islamic State in Afghanistan. This would be a welcome development though few in Pakistan perceive it with any permanence. Ties between the two countries have previously swung between indifference and outright hostility, partially due to domestic concerns, but also external considerations. Resultantly, any talk of bilateral ties tends to bring out the best and worst in the systems of both countries alike.