Several Pakistani commentators have seen a recent public rift between Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and his father, former president Asif Ali Zardari, as an attempt by the former to step out of the shadow of the latter and secure the support of the country’s disgruntled youth. A contrasting opinion, meanwhile, sees the “rift” solely as a means to gain political mileage, though party insiders claim Bilawal also frequently opposes his father in party meetings. A key question that remains unanswered is whether the “disagreement” is part of a wider strategy to regain ground in Punjab, with an aim to forming the next government at the center.
That the PPP desires a comeback in Punjab is no secret; Bilawal and Zardari have both ramped up visits to the province, making no bones about utilizing the space created by the PMLN’s dented popularity and sidelining of the PTI to achieve this goal. It is also true that as the most populous province—with 141 elected seats out of 272 in the National Assembly—any party that secures it has an easier go at forming the federal government. The PPP’s popular peak also coincided with its dominance of Punjab, with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto alike enjoying mass appeal in the province.
Since the 2013 elections, however, the PPP has been sidelined to a nominal presence in Punjab. This is partly due to the party’s consolidating of its standing in Sindh after the 2008 elections, and partly due to a polity divided between the PTI and PMLN. Today, however, the PMLN’s popularity has been dented by the inflation inflicted by the government of former prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, while the PTI remains popular but has been largely sidelined in the aftermath of the May 9 riots. This has created a space for a potential third force, but it appears increasingly unlikely the PPP can overcome the perception of it being a “provincial” party restricted to Sindh unless Bilawal can arouse Punjab’s memory of the charisma of his grandfather and his mother.