Six months into the tenure of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) coalition government, its greatest advantage—the ongoing incarceration of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder Imran Khan—has also become its biggest hurdle.
Under Shehbaz Sharif, the new government is supported by the PPP, MQMP, PMLQ. Since assuming power, it has taken several unpopular economic decisions aimed at securing a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout, triggering further misery for people already burdened with financial hardship. Convincing the public of the necessity for such measures has proven difficult, especially as the government’s legitimacy remains in question due to allegations of rigging in the Feb. 8 general elections. Attempts to negotiate a way forward with the PTI have fallen flat, as Khan maintains he will only talk to the “real” powerbrokers, i.e. the Army. Ironically, this all harkens back to the 2017 disqualification of PMLN President Nawaz Sharif.
Sharif had commenced a long march from Islamabad to Lahore to protest his 2017 disqualification, raising a “respect the vote” slogan and lashing out at judges he accused of repeatedly ousting elected prime ministers. Later, addressing a 2020 public meeting in Gujranwala via video-link from London, he had hit out at the establishment, blaming then-Army chief Gen. (retd.) Qamar Javed Bajwa and ISI chief Lt. Gen. (retd.) Faiz Hameed for orchestrating his ouster and bringing Imran Khan to power. “Why are elected prime ministers not allowed to complete their five-year terms?” he had asked, with the narrative proving popular among the public and securing the PMLN several electoral wins. This anti-establishment narrative came crashing down when his younger brother, Shehbaz, joined hands with other opposition parties to bring about a no-confidence motion against Khan, which led to his ouster.
Contrary to Nawaz, Shehbaz has always appeared willing to go the extra-mile to appease the establishment. This policy of appeasement has been credited for the withdrawal of virtually all cases lodged against PMLN leaders by the PTI government, as well as its showing in the contentious Feb. 8 polls. The party is now said to have recovered some ground with the establishment and is currently its preferred partner, especially as Khan continues to be on the outs after the May 9, 2023 riots. Unfortunately, with public anger mounting over new taxation policies and the sustained role of the establishment in non-defense matters, this perception might cost the PMLN dearly whenever the country next moves to elections.