Pakistan is once again threatened from the “inside”—by separatist and terrorist groups—paving ground for outside forces to destabilize it further.
The conditions supporting such “interference” are directly linked to the state’s failure to establish its writ consistently, facilitating dissension in the form of militancy that is once more ascendant. Worsening the already troubling situation are “rivalries” of foreign states that threaten the state depending on the ”camp” Pakistan is perceived to belong to.
Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Islamabad hosts South Asia’s arm of Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, which is a $62 billion infrastructure project aiming to connect China to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan. Historically, Islamabad allied with Washington during the Cold War and the War on Terror, but the Afghan war’s adverse impact on Pakistan have left those ties strained. This has accompanied a boost in ties between the U.S. and India, and a decline in relations between Beijing and Delhi, leaving Pakistan in an uncertain position that requires skillful handling.
These “bloc politics” facilitate proxy wars, especially in a state such as Pakistan, which faces threats from both India and Afghanistan. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government made much noise over shunning such “blocs,” but its methodology only served to polarize the country’s foreign policy, endangering Pakistan’s ties with the U.S. and the European Union, the country’s most important trading partners. Thanks to its economic doldrums, Pakistan cannot afford to find itself on the wrong side of the geopolitical divide. The “options” before us are seeking a closer partnership with China—as appears to be playing out—or accept a role secondary to its arch-rival India within the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.