The goodwill triggered by Pakistani and Indian athletes securing the gold and silver medals for the Javelin Throw at the Paris Olympics evokes thoughts of a normalization of ties between the neighboring states.
This is especially pertinent as India’s growing presence in the Middle East has prompted concern within Pakistan over its ambitions in a historically Pakistan-centric region. In recent months, the Indian Navy has conducted anti-piracy operations in the Red Sea, Indian Ocean, and the Gulf of Aden to praise from Arab states. While such operations are not seen as reflecting India’s strategic ambition, they unavoidably highlight its ascendance as a major power, as well as the U.S. linkages that facilitate it. India’s dominance actually represents a crucial component of the larger geostrategic puzzle involving the U.S. “as a provider of a bulwark against China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.” A pro-China Pakistan, consequently, is fearful of how this could impact the power balance in South Asia.
Key to the current scenario is the Indian Ocean, which transports a third of global bulk cargo and transits two-thirds of international oil shipments for the region. The U.S., long concerned about China’s rise as a global superpower, is seeking to boost cooperation with India as a counter, sidelining “ally” Pakistan. Adding salt to the wounds is Delhi’s fairly recent emphasis on becoming a naval power, driven in part by its territorial disputes with Pakistan and a cautious approach to China.
As part of its ambitions, Delhi has ramped up the Indian Navy’s allocations in its overall defense budget, increasing them from around 14 percent to 19 percent. In June 2023, the Indian Navy conducted a dual aircraft carrier exercise, a significant achievement that China has not replicated. However, it would be a mistake to see this as a new arena for a Sino-Indian confrontation; rather, it calls for an international effort to reconcile all the negative relationships in the region that risk being aggravated by an Indian dominance. Key to this, naturally, is a rapprochement between India and Pakistan, who must take steps to improve their bilateral equation, perhaps by involving China, which trades with both and also stands to gain from regional stability. Further potential support can come from Pakistan’s “brotherly” Gulf states, which have built up their own ties with India.