The 13-year-old Syrian civil war revived last week, with rebels seizing Aleppo and threatening to assume control of other territories held by the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Nearly a decade ago, Aleppo’s control was divided between government and rebel forces. Russian airpower and Hezbollah helped Assad regain control over the entire city by the end of 2016. Since then, the Syrian civil war has remained on the backburner, with rebels mostly based in the Idlib governate adjoining the Aleppo region. Recent geopolitical shifts arising from Israel’s ongoing offensives in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have emboldened these rebels, enabling them to mount a new insurgence. Russia and Iran are similarly distracted, the former with Ukraine and the latter with Israel, eroding Assad’s authority.
The latest assault has left Assad reeling, weakening his grip on power. There are reports of the fighting reaching capital Damascus, though these remain unverified. The lack of any international journalists in Syria has raised questions over the veracity of reports emerging from the country, with regional experts warning of a surge in misinformation and disinformation.
Key to any attempt at pushing back the rebels will be international support for Assad. Russia and Iran will undoubtedly continue offering their aid, though it is unlikely this will prove beneficial if Syrian forces are unwilling to take on the rebels directly. In a statement, the Syrian government has vowed to defeat the “terrorists,” with its military claiming “success” in an operation to push back the rebels.
Over 300 fighters and 100 civilians have died in the recent fighting. These numbers will continue to rise if a peace, tentative or otherwise, is not achieved soon. The greatest victim will continue to be Syrians, caught between their government and rebel forces. The wider Middle East, meanwhile, will have to reckon with another conflict, even as it struggles to tackle the ongoing Israeli offensive. The latest offensive proves that without the state’s writ, no government can afford to ignore insurgencies on its soil. Syria facing the results of its hubris; who will be next?