The attempted assassination of former U.S. president Donald Trump at a public event in Pennsylvania over the weekend has led to global condemnations. Fortunately, the shooter only managed to injure Trump’s ear, with the Republican leader allowed to go home after a brief stay in hospital. But while Trump was lucky and escaped largely unscathed, history has shown the consequences of previous such attacks—both in the U.S. and abroad.
The most prominent of assassinated U.S. politicians was then-president John F. Kennedy, who was shot in the head in Dallas in 1963. Prior to that then-president Abraham Lincoln was similarly shot in the head in 1865. More recently, Ronald Reagan narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in 1981. For Pakistanis, political assassinations are particularly concerning, as the country has seen several politicians fall victim to terrorism over the past two decades, including former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007 at the hands of a Pakistani Taliban militant. Most recently, former prime minister Imran Khan survived an assassination attempt in 2022, an incident that his supporters see paralleling the assault on Trump. Unfortunately, the means by which such attacks occur suggest there is no reasonable way to halt them entirely, as the violence perpetrated can stem equally from personal inspiration—the “lone” shooter—or targeted assault, with only ideology separating one from the other.
Meanwhile, there is understandable concern over the rising number of attacks on political leaders in modern times, with historians claiming South Asia saw 76 percent of assassinations targeting its political leaders after the mid-1980s. Explanations vary, with some believing this a consequence of growing regional instability during and after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Similarly, over 85 percent of assassinations in Eastern Europe were perpetrated after 1995 when the region was transitioning to democracy. Rough estimates suggest that, globally, 17 percent of assassination attempts have targeted heads of state; 18 percent opposition leaders; 21 percent members of parliament; 14 percent ministers; 10 percent diplomats; 5 percent local politicians; just 3 percent deputy heads of state.
The situation is complicated by the personal psyche of a killer, making it difficult to conduct any formal analysis of the reasons behind it. Perceptions of political assassinations being motivated by curbs on political competition certainly don’t apply to the U.S., but there is also no denying increasing polarization and fragmentation of society, which can play a similar role in “motivating” would-be killers. In the days to come, much will be written on the individual who targeted Trump; however, following his killing in retaliatory firing, it is unlikely we would ever get the full picture for what led him down this unfortunate path.