The PPP and PMLN are ostensibly ruling Pakistan jointly, but it is apparent to all that the PPP wishes to stay out of governance in a bid to avoid public backlash over anticipated harsh measures as the government strives to achieve economic stability. This “marriage of convenience,” however, has failed to patch up the irreconcilable differences between the political opponents, which came to the fore earlier this month after the finance minister introduced the Finance Bill 2024 in the National Assembly. Part of this might be attributed to the PPP’s belief that its supporters in Punjab are no longer angry over its previous reconciliations with the PMLN after the 2013 and 2018 general elections. But the primary reason is undoubtedly the mutual threat posed by PTI founder Imran Khan, who continues to challenge both parties from behind bars at Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail.
The current spell of uneasy alliance commenced during Khan’s tenure in the Prime Minister’s Office, increasing in fervor after the PTI fell out with the Army. But while the two voiced bonhomie in public, the subsurface rivalry persisted, with both eager to seize on any perceived weakness of the other. This was most obvious during the campaign for the Feb. 8 general election, as Bhutto-Zardari took direct aim at the PMLN in Punjab, seemingly showing no concern for the PTI. The PMLN, by contrast, largely avoided outright conflict, preferring to voice soft criticisms that would not damage to any potential future alliances.
In the present scenario, the PPP and PMLN would continue with the status quo until Imran Khan’s threat has been overcome, when they would revert to the traditional rivalry over Punjab and Islamabad. With both parties struggling to secure the popular support that has become concentrated with the PTI, this is a strategic play aimed at ousting the “other” before once more turning their guns on each other. However, this requires a degree of cooperation that has, thus far, appeared lacking. How the parties proceed in the weeks and months to come could well determine whether the incumbent government would complete its five-year tenure—or whether it would be ousted as so many previous governments of Pakistan.