Prior to the Feb. 8 general elections, many believed Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) would receive their comeuppance in polls and be sidelined from Parliament.
Instead, independents backed by the party secured the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, with the Supreme Court last month recognizing them as PTI candidates, paving the way for their return to Parliament as a parliamentary party. Such legal victories have bolstered the PTI, whose leaders are now convinced they can prove the polls were rigged and flip sufficient seats to form their own government. These developments have clearly unnerved the government, which alternates between threatening to ban the PTI outright to enacting legislation aimed at countering the apex court’s ruling.
Six months since the elections, Pakistan has yet to come out of the crisis triggered by them. Reportedly, the security establishment continues to support the government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, but the growing fervor of Khan’s overtures to the Army have not gone unnoticed and Islamabad abounds with rumors of an impending “deal” that could see a reverse of the vote of no-confidence that initially led to Sharif assuming the Prime Minister’s Office. Consistent in both situations is support of the security establishment for one group over another, highlighting its status as a powerbroker.
What surprises observers is how politicians critical of the military while in Pakistan’s opposition tend to support it when in power, prioritizing personal and party interests. The country has a long history of this, but in recent years it applies to both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan. Consequently, people both in Pakistan and abroad are led to perceive the military as more reliable and resilient compared to the shifting policies of political parties beset by defections, infighting, and nepotism. This has fed the belief of the security establishment preferring compliant elected governments and robust oppositions to maintain a check on their power. Even today, P.M. Sharif heads a government considered beholden to the military, while the PTI—despite Khan’s incarceration—gives it a “tough time” both in and outside Parliament. Unfortunately, this situation is not conducive to stability and no matter how the political chaos plays out, the fear of unpredictable developments will continue to haunt the country for the foreseeable future.