The political parties comprising the ruling coalition—particularly the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)—are understandably eyeing the upcoming general elections with trepidation. The latter is struggling to revive itself in Punjab in a bid to return to power at the center, while the former remains internally divided, with its “real” leader in exile in London. The crackdown against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) after the May 9 riots has opened a path for them, but it is likely that any mandate secured from polls will be tainted by a low turnout, as Imran Khan’s supporters boycott in protest. The turnout—rarely exceeding 50 percent in the recent past—is also predicted to witness a decline as voters express their anger over the punishing economy.
The country’s economic doldrums remain its primary problem, with rampant smuggling further hampering revenue generation, even as inflation last month hit a record 38 percent, year-on-year. Adding to woes is a lack of financial support from lenders, with Islamabad looking once again to China to help keep it afloat. In this situation, it is likely that whatever government emerges after the next polls will be yet another “weak” coalition, making it tougher to enact much-needed reforms. The inevitable return to the IMF after the current bailout expires on June 30 will also bring more pain, with fears it could trigger social unrest and protests that will further trouble any new government.
Another looming problem is that of terrorism, making it difficult to implement projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The only solution, per a majority of observers, is the IMF, which has made it clear it is no longer willing to “go easy” on Pakistan. The government has high hopes for a promised $10 billion investment from Saudi Arabia—long expected, yet to materialize—but in the short-term will undoubtedly have to rely on loans that would only add to the daunting debt of roughly $125 billion against an economy of just $376 billion (in 2022). Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions; regardless of who forms the next government, there are tough times ahead for the Pakistani public with little respite in sight.