Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran last week—widely blamed on Israel, though the state has yet to formally claim responsibility—evokes the Israeli airstrike that targeted Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in Beirut, highlighting a longstanding pattern of the Jewish ethno-state.
Even as far back as 1972, when militants massacred Israeli Olympians, Israel responded with Operation Wrath of God, a string of global assassinations of militant leaders that continued until 1988. Haniyeh’s killing is particularly troubling, however, because it occurred in a state already at odds with Israel and during a time when he was working to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. Topping Israel’s hit-list, he had mostly lived in Qatar since 2017 and likely considered Iran a “safe” spot, especially during the inauguration of new President Massoud Pezeshkian. Unsurprisingly, the dent to Iran’s sovereignty has prompted a harsh response, as Tehran is now expected to retaliate with full force.
Despite not claiming any responsibility, as it did with Shukr, most countries are directly blaming Israel for the strike, including Iran and Turkey. This has prompted Middle East experts to voice fears the Israeli assault on Gaza could escalate into a wider regional conflict. Especially concerning is how the loss of Haniyeh would shape a Palestinian response, as Qatar had just brokered ceasefire deal that included an exchange of hostages held in Gaza for Palestinians in Israeli prisons, along with more aid for Gaza.
While known for his tough rhetoric, Haniyeh was considered a moderate pragmatist, which has seen some Western voices theorize his killing came from within Hamas. This view, naturally, is not supported by most Arab states, with the Qatari prime minister questioning how any mediation could succeed if one size assassinates the negotiator of the other. Even within the U.S., multiple reports have cited anonymous officials as blaming Israel for the assassination. Since the killing, Qatar and Egypt have both questioned the future of ceasefire negotiations, heralding a return to the Arab-Israeli conflict that has hampered regional peace and normal governance for decades already.