Prevailing political uncertainty and a looming clash between institutions has revived memories of the “doctrine of necessity” evoked by past military officers to impose martial law in Pakistan.
This isn’t surprising, as Pakistan has been directly ruled by its Army for nearly half its history, with the military retaining a role in politics and national security even when it is not in power. The last such occurrence was in 1999, when Pervez Musharraf ousted then-prime minister Nawaz Sharif, with his rule continuing until 2008. More recently, an embattled Imran Khan facing ouster through a vote of no-confidence in 2022 threatened to impose martial law if the opposition did not agree to fresh elections. Ministers of the incumbent PMLN-led government have similarly warned of a “wrapping up of the system” if the country’s political situation remains volatile.
Unfortunately, the threat of military coups is ever-present in Pakistan. Historians note Ayub Khan staged the country’s first coup d’état occurred in 1958, overthrowing and exiling then-president Iskandar Ali Mirza. It set the stage for future coups, highlighting the most significant aspect of Pakistan’s political landscape, that of the military exercising influence wherever it deems necessary. This has persisted even under democratic regimes, with the “hybrid” system now de rigueur.
Today, the civilian bureaucracy and key institutions of society also feature representatives of the military and its intelligence services. Pakistan’s seesaw relationship with democracy is reflected in its economic growth, which has similarly vacillated between low and high peaks, strongly influenced by geopolitics and national security. Past military rulers have also avoided significant international backlash by aligning themselves with Western powers—whether by backing democracy over communism or joining the war on terror after 9/11. These conditions ensure that warnings of martial law will arise in Pakistan whenever there is a political crisis because history remains relevant even as the country largely holds a consensus on democracy.