India and China this week announced an agreement on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Galwan Valley, indicating a rapprochement of the neighbors’ bilateral ties.
Over four years ago, the two countries engaged in violent clashes on the contested border, with casualties on both sides, raising fears of a new regional conflict. However, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told media last month that work on disengagement was proceeding rapidly following Sino-Indian border talks in August and a meeting between Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi. He also maintained these talks were not relevant to broader bilateral ties between the two nations.
External observers often assume the key issue between Delhi and Beijing is border dispute. However, a closer look suggests the dispute is actually the consequence, rather than the cause, of deeper problems. India increasingly appears to be gambling that it can sustain contentious ties with China, while also maintaining stability on favorable terms. This echoes China’s much-reported advice to Pakistan to support trade with India, while proceeding with resolving the Jammu and Kashmir dispute on the backburner.
Beyond the border dispute, an unequal trade relationship, Beijing’s strategic ties with Pakistan, and a broadening disagreement over their perceived rightful place in the comity of nations hamper ties between China and India. The 2020 border clash brought these issues to the fore, with recent geopolitical moves of both countries only bolstering them. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought Beijing closer to Moscow, India’s historic defense partner. Delhi, meanwhile, has moved closer to the U.S., which hopes to use it as a form of deterrence to China’s superpower aspirations. The resulting relationship tends to tension rather than cooperation, rubbishing past efforts from both to set aside differences to focus on economic development.
Neither side, however, wants to see an escalation toward a more serious conflict. The decision to resolve matters on the LAC hints at a positive way forward, especially as both Indian P.M. Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping head to a summit of world leaders under the BRICS umbrella this week in Russia, with reports of bilateral talks on the sidelines.