Pakistan’s latest wheat crisis is not the result of drought, war, or an unforeseen natural disaster. Rather, it is a direct consequence of ill-thought policy.
As has happened so often in the past, the country is once more a victim of its rulers’ desire to rush headlong into sweeping economic reforms without fully considering their consequences, only realizing the cost after the damage has already been done.
The latest crisis stems from the government’s abrupt decision to end the longstanding wheat support price and withdraw from direct procurement. Presented as a necessary market reform, the policy aimed to let market forces determine prices, eliminate distortions and reduce the fiscal burden on the state. On paper, the idea appears economically sound. In practice, it ignores the realities of Pakistan’s agricultural economy.
For decades, the support price served as a guarantee that farmers would recover at least part of their investment. Removing that safety net overnight left growers exposed to market manipulation and uncertainty. Many responded by reducing cultivation or selling at distress prices. The predictable result now unfolding before the country sees dwindling domestic supplies, rising prices and expensive imports that ultimately cost consumers far more than any savings made by abandoning procurement.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) undoubtedly played a significant role in encouraging such “reforms” as part of broader efforts to reduce subsidies and government intervention. Fiscal discipline is important, and Pakistan cannot indefinitely sustain inefficient spending. But economic prescriptions are not inflexible commandments and every country has unique circumstances that must shape its policies rather than blindly adopting templates designed elsewhere. Islamabad’s failure was not merely accepting reform; it was accepting it without ensuring adequate safeguards, transitional mechanisms or contingency planning.
The irony is difficult to ignore. Many of the loudest advocates of this policy, particularly the PMLN government in Punjab, celebrated it as evidence of modern economic thinking. Today, as flour prices climb and imported wheat places fresh pressure on inflation and foreign exchange reserves, those same voices have fallen conspicuously silent. Reform is not a one-way street where successes are claimed politically, while failures are quietly buried beneath the next news cycle.
Pakistan has made this mistake far too many times. Whether energy, taxation, privatization or agriculture, governments repeatedly embrace ambitious reforms without conducting comprehensive feasibility studies, consulting affected stakeholders or honestly debating potential risks. When those policies unravel, the country pays not only though wasted fiscal space, but also the years required to undo the damage.
This cycle must end. The government must subject every major “reform” to rigorous public scrutiny, transparent cost-benefit analysis and meaningful consultation with stakeholders, particularly industry representatives and citizens. Accountability must also become non-negotiable. Policymakers who champion reforms should not disappear when those same policies fail.
Pakistan’s economic challenges demand bold decisions, but boldness without foresight is recklessness. This country can no longer afford repeated policy failures, nor can it continue treating national governance as an experiment where ordinary citizens are left paying the price every time the harvest comes up short.