A Gallup survey from February found former Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan the country’s most popular leader, “positively rated” by 61 percent of respondents, followed by 36 percent each for PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif and PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari.
Then came the May 9 riots and an ongoing crackdown against the PTI, its leaders and workers. This was followed by Sharif ending his self-exile in London and the country gearing up for general elections, which Khan is likely to sit-out, as he remains disqualified from contesting public office due to his conviction in the Toshakhana case. Despite the shifting political winds, however, Khan’s popularity has remained largely undiminished, though Sharif’s return has reduced the gap between them, with the PMLN hoping to capitalize on this in the Feb. 8, 2024 polls.
The PTI, however, maintains that if granted a “level playing field,” it will emerge victorious in the upcoming polls with a resounding majority, alleging the ongoing state crackdown on its workers and leaders aims to facilitate Sharif’s return to power. In recent weeks, it has suffered multiple blows, from the Election Commission of Pakistan pulling its electoral symbol over contested intra-party polls, to multiple allegations of harassment of potential candidates when they submit nomination forms. The PTI has challenged the ECP’s decision before the Peshawar High Court, while it is seeking a suspension of Khan’s conviction from the Supreme Court, pending appeals, which could take months if not years to proceed.
Amidst the rancor, concerns are mounting over how the public would perceive the upcoming polls if one of—if not the—the country’s most popular leaders is unable to contest. Such polls would, undoubtedly, be considered “illegitimate” by some, though one is hard-pressed to find any polls in the country since the 1970s that have not suffered similar allegations. Perception can often matter more than fact in Pakistani politics, bolstered by the societal polarization that has taken on epidemic proportions over the past decade, and the upcoming polls are certainly not going to set any new trends in this regard.
For now, Pakistani politicians in opposition to Khan have to reckon with a public perception shaped by years of corruption allegations, which are not easy to erase, even as efforts to paint him with the same brush continue. If the Supreme Court allows Khan to contest polls, however, the “traditional” politics of the PPP and PMLN could face a challenge they are ill-equipped to match.