The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) is banking on the return of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif reviving its political fortunes, but on-ground realities suggest he faces significant challenges that could hamper his re-entry into active politics. The greatest hurdle appears to be the Supreme Court-ordered reopening of a Toshakhana case. Additionally, he is a proclaimed offender in the Avenfield and Al-Azizia cases for violating bail conditions, not to mention the “lifetime” disqualification from holding public office handed down to him by the Supreme Court in the Panama Papers case. Unless the PMLN can secure bail for him, granting him time to submit himself before the court, he faces probable arrest upon his return, putting a potential damper on the party’s plans for his “grand” welcome.
Even if Nawaz manages to overcome all his legal challenges, a key question persists over how he aims to counter PTI chief Imran Khan, whose popularity persists despite multiple pending cases and an ongoing incarceration. The PMLN is also facing a growing challenge from its erstwhile partner PPP, with Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari making no bones about his aims to secure a foothold in Punjab, considered key to forming the government at the center. This could lead to a combative electoral campaign with the PPP looking for ways to sideline Nawaz in the belief that this would ensure it a tenure in Islamabad.
Of course, the NAB cases revived by the Supreme Court have roped in all major political parties, with the PPP facing corruption allegations alongside the PMLN, putting them on an “even” footing with the PTI, which faces its own legal issues. This would all need to be tackled on priority by Nawaz upon his return if he hopes to produce favorable results for the PMLN in the upcoming polls. Whether or not he succeeds could shape Pakistan’s political scenario for years to come.