File photo of PTI chief Imran KhanPakistani commentators are divided between those who maintain the post-May 9 crackdown on the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has had no impact on the popularity of Imran Khan and those who believe he will suffer in polls if the cases against him proceed toward convictions.
Key to the former’s opinion is the belief that the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has lost significant political capital that even the expected return of Nawaz Sharif will not reverse. The latter, meanwhile, claim there is no avoiding the potential impact of Khan being arrested and pushed out of elections. Not helping the PTI chief is the growing perception that a majority of his support is among overseas Pakistanis, who are continuing to demonstrate in his favor abroad though are unlikely to return to their “homeland” to express their solidarity at the ballot box.
The beleaguered PTI has also lost several prominent leaders over the past two months, with some decamping to new parties and others announcing an intent to “retire” from active politics. This process is expected to continue even after the incumbent government steps down next month, with the incoming caretaker setup likely continuing the process to sideline Khan.
It is clear to all that the military establishment has played a role in Khan’s bad times, but it is equally clear the same Army aided and abetted his entry into politics and assumption of the premiership. In this regard, the “anti-establishment” turn of his supporters rings hollow when they previously never critically noted the “support” he enjoyed to the clear detriment of his political opponents. Part of this largesse was motivated by the belief that Khan had the “guts” to challenge the “big” powers, as some—even within the country’s highest offices—regarded the “flexibility” shown by Pakistani leaders in dealing with states like the U.S. as “servitude.” Khan was propped up as the “new” leader who would defy “bullies” and herald a new “greatness” for Pakistan. This view might have shattered; but so long as its dregs remain, the “comeback” dream of the PTI chief will continue to loom large over the future of Pakistani politics.