Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visited New Delhi, reviving ties between the two states and triggering speculation over what might follow.
“[Indian P.M. Narendra] Modi asked Putin to help India resolve its longstanding border dispute with China,” read a report published by the Asia Times. “This is the most important military conflict in Asia, limited as it is, because it puts the region’s two largest countries at odds,” it said, noting any Russian mediation would entail a diplomatic revolution, and make a mockery of America’s hope of rallying Asian countries against China. It also recalls speculation that a boost of the Muslim population in Asia alongside a decline in the non-Muslim population would push India, Russia and China toward strategic rapprochement. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, meanwhile, has already driven rivals India and China together.
Paving the way for this rapprochement is China’s mushrooming trade with the global South, including India. Delhi depends on Chinese supply chains to support its export industry, importing components and capital goods from China that it assembles into finished products for developed markets. Since China shifted its exports away from the West, India has more than doubled its imports from China. This stands to benefit both countries, as despite their populations being almost equal, India’s per capita GDP is about a sixth of China’s in purchasing-power parity. China is also a global expert in infrastructure, while India has a $1.7 trillion deficit in basic infrastructure.
According to a 2022 World Bank report, India would need to invest $840 billion over the next 15 years into urban infrastructure to effectively meet the needs of its fast-growing urban population. China can help fund this if its bilateral ties grow with India, in turn having great effect on the entire South Asian region. This could also prove beneficial for a Pakistan at odds with India, as economic development is only solution to the nationalism that has hitherto taken the two states into a cul-de-sac of conflict. China, as Pakistan’s most reliable regional partner, is best placed to facilitate this.