Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit marked the first such visit to Pakistan by an Indian official since 2015, and the first by any Indian minister since Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit in 2016.
As conveyed earlier, the visit did not include any bilateral engagements between Pakistan and India, though informal discussions did take place. None of this was a surprise, as just a month prior to this trip, Jaishankar had told media the “era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan” was over, asserting that any “positive or negative” event will trigger a suitable reaction from Delhi.
India boosted its warlike stance after January 2016, when militants attacked the Indian Air Force’s Pathankot Airbase, shortly after P.M. Narendra Modi paid a “surprise” visit to Pakistan. The situation worsened after the February 2019 Pulwama attack, which India blamed on Pakistan, and a subsequent military standoff. The final straw proved India’s unilateral abrogation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status in August 2019, following which Islamabad severed all ties with Delhi. Two years later, in February 2021, the rival nations announced a ceasefire along the Line of Control, which persists, establishing a tentative peace.
While still troubled, bilateral ties have relatively remained calm since, with both seeking to minimize tensions due to more pressing challenges from elsewhere: India from China and Pakistan from Afghanistan, as well as prolonged economic crisis. That Jaishankar visited Pakistan despite this situation reflects the importance India attaches to the SCO—and to its emphasis on Central Asia, a region Delhi is keen to ramp up ties with. India’s easiest land route to Central Asia winds through Pakistan, though ties need to improve significantly before such an aim can materialize. If the bitter rivals can move past their current freeze, both stand to profit. Whether or not this can materialize under an increasingly belligerent Modi remains to be seen.