The federal government’s latest Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) for 2024–25 triggered a wave of criticism online after it set Pakistan’s revised Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) poverty line at Rs. 8,483 per month per adult. Broken down, that amounts to just Rs. 283/day.
For many Pakistanis struggling with soaring food, housing and transport costs, especially those of a higher socioeconomic class, the figure comes across as absurdly low. Unsurprisingly, social media quickly filled with accusations that the government was out of touch with the realities of everyday life.
Much of that outrage, however, overlooked what the figure actually seeks to represent. More importantly, it distracted from a far more pressing issue: whether Pakistan’s method of measuring poverty is no longer fit for purpose.
Many reports focused solely on the monthly amount without explaining its role. The poverty line is primarily used to identify the population that welfare programs are designed to serve. Eligibility for specific schemes is determined separately through the National Socio-Economic Registry (NSER) and the Proxy Means Test. Households that meet the required criteria, including possessing a CNIC, registering with the NSER and not owning disqualifying assets, are eligible to receive quarterly cash payments of Rs. 10,500-14,500 through the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP).
Qualifying households may also receive education stipends through Taleemi Wazaif, maternal nutrition support under Nashonuma, provincial food subsidies, healthcare benefits, subsidized treatment and discretionary Zakat assistance. Falling below the Rs. 8,483 monthly threshold effectively means an individual falls within the target group for many of these programs. According to the latest survey, 28.9% of Pakistan’s population falls below that line.
Even so, critics of the incumbent Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) government seized on the announcement as evidence of authorities’ disconnect from the economic hardships facing ordinary Pakistanis. That criticism may be politically effective, but misses an important point: the poverty line is not a new invention of the current government.
The previous HIES, conducted for 2018–19, set the poverty line at Rs. 3,758/month. That figure remained in place throughout the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government’s tenure despite years of inflation and declining purchasing power. Treating the latest figure as a uniquely political decision obscures the deeper issue: whether the benchmark itself still reflects the economic realities of modern Pakistan.
The World Bank uses different poverty thresholds depending on a country’s level of development. Its international extreme poverty line, around $3 a day, is primarily intended for the world’s poorest countries, where the focus is on ensuring basic subsistence amid severe deprivation. For lower-middle-income countries such as Pakistan, the World Bank uses a higher benchmark of roughly $4.20 per day, calculated using purchasing power parity rather than market exchange rates. At today’s exchange rate, this is roughly equivalent to Rs. 1,166 a day, much higher than Pakistan’s newly announced threshold and more in line with what many perceive to be “true poverty.” Therein lies the rub.
The debate should not be about which government announced the latest poverty line. It should be about whether Pakistan’s official definition of poverty still captures the lived experience of those it is meant to measure. To be fair, the latest HIES does improve on previous versions by giving greater weight to rural conditions. Yet despite that refinement, the benchmark still appears increasingly detached from international standards and the realities faced by millions of Pakistanis.
No matter which government oversees the next survey, the same criticism is likely to resurface unless the underlying methodology changes. If Pakistan wants welfare programs to reach those who need them most, it must begin with a poverty measure that accurately reflects what it actually costs to survive in the country today.