U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statements and policy decisions regarding Afghanistan pose significant repercussions and opportunities for Pakistan—whether or not we are ready for them.
Within hours of assuming office, Trump signed an executive order suspending the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, virtually abandoning roughly 15,000 Afghans hoping for resettlement while residing in Pakistan. These individuals now face prolonged uncertainty, from both the U.S. and Pakistan, which is continuing a controversial Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan targeting undocumented Afghan refugees. Many of these individuals face violent reprisals if they return to Afghanistan, highlighting the humanitarian crisis in the offing.
Trump has also ordered a pause to U.S. aid to Afghanistan, which has totaled $2.1 billion in humanitarian funding since August 2021. Since the freezing of nearly $9.5 billion of Afghanistan’s external reserves by the U.S. and Europe, this aid has been critical for stabilizing the country’s economy. Experts warn its cessation could prove catastrophic, especially for vulnerable groups such as women and children. A deterioration of conditions due to economic collapse could trigger a new influx of refugees into Pakistan, which is unwilling to shoulder any further strain on its economy and social services.
The new U.S. president has further demanded the return of American military equipment left behind during the withdrawal of NATO forces in 2021. The Afghan Taliban subsequently seized the military assets, a sore point for Pakistan, which has alleged their use by militants who target its security forces while sheltering across the porous border. The Taliban swiftly rejected this demand, indicating the U.S. should instead provide them with more advanced weaponry to combat the Islamic State-Khorasan. Unlikely to be accepted, this demand risks altering the balance of power in the region, leading to increased militarization and the possibility of these weapons falling into the hands of non-state actors. This scenario poses a direct threat to Pakistan’s national security, potentially emboldening militant groups operating within and across its borders.
In his previous administration, Trump often painted Pakistan as a spoiler to peace in Afghanistan. His remarks thus far indicate a shift in approach, but are no less concerning for Islamabad. Pak-U.S. ties remained strained under Biden, pushing Islamabad closer to China. Widening rifts could expedite this process. A potential pathway to cooperation, however, lies in de-weaponing the Taliban through economic pressure or diplomatic engagement, a longstanding demand of Pakistan, which has repeatedly criticized Afghanistan’s failure to rein in TTP militants.
The unfolding situation requires Pakistan to engage in proactive diplomacy with both the U.S. and Afghan authorities to mitigate potential threats and maintain stability within its borders. This requires national unity and decisive decision-making, sorely lacking in the prevailing political polarization.
As geopolitical shifts accelerate, Pakistan must move beyond reactive diplomacy and take bold, strategic actions to safeguard its national interests—before decisions are made for it.